Forecasting and Designing the Future
Strategic foresight is not about predicting the future, it's about minimizing surprise. The future cannot be predicted; but it can be designed
For about seven years now I've been periodically engaged in doing foresight work, with clients such as the Canadian government and army; some of our conference findings went straight to the Prime Minister's office. I've published a 27,000 word "fictionalization" of military foresight studies entitled Crisis in Zefra, given numerous talks and keynote addresses, and facilitated at conferences. For instance, here's a 15 minute keynote address I gave at OSCON '09, O'Reilly Publisher's 2009 open source conference, held in July 2009 in San Jose, California:
(You can find more videos here.)
Master's Degree in Strategic Foresight
From fall 2009 to Spring 2011 I'll be working towards a Masters in Strategic Foresight from OCAD University (our building was recently hailed as one of the 13 "strangest buildings in the world" by TravelandLeisure.com). This will formalize my skills and experience in an area where I already do a good deal of work.

Here is the College's description of the program:
The Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation integrates knowledge and methodology from a number of disciplines: design, business, science and technology, and the social sciences. Design provides the crucial link between these areas, drawing on its essential competencies of design thinking, strategic and iterative methodology, and a deep commitment to understanding human needs, wants and behaviour. Through holistic thinking in a co-creative environment, the designer, the business person, the social scientist and the engineer will develop together the skills required for true socio-technological innovation.
The program will develop students’ expertise in research and innovation methodologies to a high level. . . With their creativity and ability to navigate complex systems and guided by strong social and environmental principles, graduates of this program will be well-positioned to make meaningful societal change.
Existing Skills and Experience
- Session facilitation, results capture and public presentation I'm a good facilitator and have worked with diverse teams from government, industry and the military to create and refine scenarios in a variety of areas. As part of this activity, I've become experienced with many aspects of scenario-based foresight, including:
- Scenario development
- Drivers analysis
- Back-casting
- Report writing and analysis
- Conference planning
- Public speaking, including giving keynote addresses
- Writing, including preliminary scenarios and summary reports My unique contribution is the ability to craft fictionalized dramatizations of foresight findings. Examples of this include the 27,000 word Crisis in Zefra, as well as shorter pieces such as the story "Community".
- Design of "serious games" I've designed and overseen "red versus blue" scenarios involving future conflicts and future technologies. Such simulations can provide surprising insights into technical vulnerabilities and the effects of disruptive technologies. They also generate tremendous enthusiasm in conference attendees, which can help move things forward.
Features of this site
I've designed this part of the website to feature this aspect of my work. I've also chosen Plone as my website technology because it allows me to create secure sub-sites that clients can use to set up their workspaces. I've done this in the past--last year with the Prospective Protective Futures conference, for instance, where we used a subsite of mine to develop the conference material and agenda. This time around, I can provide many more features and services for such activities.
